Collierville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

556
FXUS64 KMEG 260459
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1159 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- Dangerous, oppressive heat and humidity return on Sunday. Heat
  indices each day are forecast to reach Heat Advisory and Extreme
  Heat Warning criteria. Therefore, heat headlines are in effect
  now through 8PM Tuesday.

- Lower humidity and seasonal temperatures will arrive by midweek,
  providing some relief from the extreme heat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Surface observations as of 10PM Saturday depict areas of patchy
fog developing over the Mid-South. Given clearing skies, light
winds, and low dewpoint depressions, dense fog potential will
continue to increase over the next several hours. A Dense Fog
Advisory may be warranted if trends hold. Visibilities will
quickly improve after sunrise.

Dangerous heat and humidity will settle over the Mid-South on
Sunday as an upper level ridge, centered over the Rockies,
strengthens to 599 dam. Afternoon highs will warm into the low to
and mid 90s with heat indices reaching as high as 113 degrees.
Unfortunately, temperatures will continue to warm into next week
with a few areas reaching 100 degrees on Tuesday. A Heat Advisory
and Extreme Heat Warning are in effect through 8PM Tuesday. The
warning area may be expanded as we head into Monday and Tuesday.
Aside from the heat and humidity, rain chances cannot be ruled
out Sunday into Monday as an MCS develops over the Midwest. This
system will propagate southeast, potentially impacting areas
along the Tennessee River. Confidence in this occurring is low
due to run-to-run model inconsistencies and the placement of the
aforementioned ridge. However, a stray storm or two cannot be
ruled out into Monday.

On Wednesday, a back door cold front will moderate temperatures
and dewpoints to the low 90s and upper 60s, respectively. While
not providing much relief, this will be enough to decrease the
need for heat headlines as we move into the latter half of the
week. Long term guidance is hinting at increased rain chances for
the upcoming weekend, but it remains too early to tell specifics.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

IFR formed near the TN River late Saturday evening, earlier and
more widespread than anticipated. IFR/LIFR may develop westward
once midlevel clouds around FL100 clear out and before additional
high clouds spread in from the north.. At this time, MEM and JBR
will likely remain VFR, but confidence is marginal. A few -SHRA
may occur, associated with a subtle midlevel disturbance, but
impacts should be minimal.

TSRA chances for Sunday afternoon have re-emerged in some of the
CAM guidance, mainly along the TN River. 00Z HREF lightning probs
depict TSRA remaining east of MKL, while REFS ensemble lightning
probs depict TSRA clusters as far west as MEM around 21Z. Weak
model consensus aside, given the extremely moist airmass and
daytime heat, TSRA cannot be ruled out over any of the Midsouth
TAF sites Sunday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minRH
values remain above 40% and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
     ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
     MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
     MSZ001-007-008-010>012-020.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
     MSZ002>006-009-013>017-021>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
     TNZ001>003-019-020-048>051-088-089.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ004-
     021-022-052>055-090>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB